Background:
WHO recommends the needles and syringe programs (NSPs) to offer low dead space syringes and needles (LDSS/N), to reduce HCV/HIV transmission risk. However, lack of visibility of market size and demand for LDSS/N has resulted in limited availability, poor quality and variable prices in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated market size and demand for LDSS/N to facilitate market entry and scale up of LDSS/N in LMICs.
Methods:
We developed a deterministic model for estimating market size and demand for LDSS/N based on people who inject drugs (PWID) population. We then layered the NSP program availability and coverage, country by country to estimate number of clients requiring NSP services in the base year (2025). Finally, the quantity of needles and syringes (N&S) were calculated by multiplying the number of clients estimated in the base year (2025) by WHO target of N&S distribution per PWID per year to arrive at demand estimates. This was extrapolated cumulatively, informed by industry reports, to provide estimates for 2030.
Results:
The potential global market for N&S for harm reduction is estimated at 4.5 billion N&S combinations, with a market value of USD 223 million, for 14.8 million PWID. Demand for LDSS/N is estimated at 292 million N&S combinations in 2025, with a market value of USD 14.6 million. This is estimated for 8.2 million PWID across 55 LMICs where there is at least one NSP. This is expected to grow to 433 million (48%) by 2030. LDSS/N options should be offered in NSPs to reduce the risk of bloodborne virus transmission (including HIV/HCV).
Conclusions:
The market size and demand estimates demonstrate a viable market for LDSS/N in LMICs. Further research is needed to understand the market enablers, constraints, acceptability, values and preferences and willingness-to-pay to develop compelling business case for LDSS/N in LMICs. |